Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
