A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
